The Guardianreports that Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, says oil will peak next year. This contradicts many other reports that claim oil will not peak until about 2020. Of course, 2020 is not that far away either. So why does Campbell think it will be much earlier than 2020? Because most of the oil company estimates and government oil reserve amounts are lies.
But the business of estimating oil reserves is contentious and political. According to Campbell, companies seldom report their true findings for commercial reasons, and governments - which own 90% of the reserves - often lie. Most official figures, he says, are grossly unreliable: "Estimating reserves is a scientific business. There is a range of uncertainty but it is not impossible to get a good idea of what a field contains. Reporting [reserves], however, is a political act."
The other problem is that oil is being consumed faster than ever before. The leading regions like North America and Europe continue to consume more oil and now India and China are increasing oil consumption at a rapid pace. To make things worse Campbell thinks we are unlikely to find any major new sources of oil.
"All the major discoveries were in the 1960s, since when they have been declining gradually over time, give or take the occasional spike and trough," says Campbell. "The whole world has now been seismically searched and picked over. Geological knowledge has improved enormously in the past 30 years and it is almost inconceivable now that major fields remain to be found."
